Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". That report was issued on Nov. 12. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Team up with others in your region, and help out by "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. The matters that way on their minds are real. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. What are your thoughts on this article? Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. 2023 BBC. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. All rights reserved. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. University of New Hampshire . "They followed through the whole four years. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. That's 14 in a row. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Want to dive deeper? Trump won 18 of the 19. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. It is easy to gloss over this. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. The divisions were everywhere. But it's still indicative of widespread support. Their emotions and decision making process are real. Go on, look them up! They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. Not anymore. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) Not a bad streak. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. It's the wrong question. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. Republicans have paid some attention. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Joe Biden (631) Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Trump won the other 18 counties. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, 03:30. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. University of Denver, 2. Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. . Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022.
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